Ukraine is on the verge of obtaining 35 PAC-3 missiles for its Patriot air defense systems, capable of intercepting advanced threats such as Kinzhal, Zircon, and Iskander missiles. However, experts caution that this number may only be sufficient to counteract a few mass missile attacks targeting Kyiv.
The PAC-3 missile, an upgrade from its predecessor, the PAC-2, features a fundamentally different approach to target engagement. Unlike the PAC-2, which employs a fragmentation warhead that detonates near its target, sending shrapnel to destroy incoming threats, the PAC-3 utilizes a Hit-to-Kill mechanism. This means the missile physically collides with its target, ensuring higher accuracy and effectiveness.
“It attaches to the missile and maneuvers with it until impact. Notably, in one of the initial Kinzhal interceptions, the warhead was penetrated directly, which exemplifies the PAC-3’s operational capabilities,” explained defense expert Kryvolap.
Despite the advanced technology, the supply of PAC-3 missiles remains inadequate. As Kryvolap noted, the Western defense industry was unprepared for the intense pace of missile launching seen in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Manufacturing capacities were originally set to produce about 600 missiles annually, which could only replenish stockpiles during peacetime.
With the production ramping up to approximately 750 missiles per year, even in an ideal scenario where all US manufacturing efforts are directed toward Ukraine, the total may still fall short of operational needs during conflict engagements.
According to Kryvolap, two PAC-3 missiles are typically needed to ensure the interception of a single ballistic target. This implies that with the entire annual production allocation from the United States, Ukraine could theoretically disrupt around 360 ballistic missiles. In contrast, Russian capabilities allow for the monthly production of approximately 30 Iskander missiles, equating to an estimated 40 ballistic launches each month.
Thus, the 35 PAC-3 missiles that Ukraine is set to receive would only suffice for approximately two major assaults on Kyiv, assuming two interceptors are deployed per incoming missile. “Consequently, regardless of these missile provisions, the volume of ballistic threats will continue to surpass the limited interceptor capacity,” Kryvolap concluded.
Ukraine's acquisition of 35 PAC-3 missiles offers some defensive capacity against advanced Russian missile threats, but experts warn this may only be adequate for a couple of large-scale attacks. The ongoing conflict's intensity and missile production rates highlight a concerning imbalance in available defense resources.