The time has come to prepare a second front to protect the electoral process

Balancing on the line between hope and anxiety, ruthless war and the desire for peace, supporting or alienating a key ally, Ukraine is experiencing perhaps a defining moment. I say “maybe” because you’ve experienced these moments before.

At times it was difficult to determine whether this theater around the settlement was a genuine search for solutions, or a path of procrastination or a distraction from other pressing issues. Each time, Russia’s intransigence remains unshakable, which buys them time and at the same time provides an opportunity to increase aggression.

The strategic patience of the US proved to be unpredictable, balancing between the desire to find a quick solution and conclude an agreement, and the desire to retreat and leave Ukraine to its own devices.

Advertising:

The European Union and the key states of Europe, in particular, Great Britain, as well as other allies seek to do the right thing, seek to assure Ukraine that peace will be ensured by security guarantees. But they fear that they do not currently have the necessary military capacity for such guarantees in the absence of intelligence and ammunition supplies from the United States.

President Zelenskyi’s statement about Ukraine’s painful choice between the loss of its own dignity and the loss of a key ally remains relevant. Russia’s 28-point capitulation plan, “combed” and presented as an offer by the US, is now reportedly 19 points.

The US president called the results of the intense negotiations “tremendous progress”. At a time when key sensitive issues of security, justice and reparations still need to be resolved, Moscow’s lackluster signals so far indicate Russia’s reluctance to end its war of choice against Ukraine.

Over the past year, both sides have tried not to risk incurring the wrath of President Trump, who has been seen as an obstacle to peace. I hope that this time there may be more meaningful and lasting results that will honor the great resilience and sacrifice of Ukrainians.

You have suffered so much, paid such a high price in destruction, death and injury, endured endless attacks by Russian drones and missiles, the intensity of which is only increasing, and fought so bravely to hold back the aggressor that your collective resilience, courage and national dignity cannot be questioned. I sincerely hope that this time it will be possible to achieve a just and secure peace for Ukraine. Peace, which will be a new dawn after the long night of war, and not another false hope.

This war is being waged for territories, but at its core is the struggle for your sovereignty, freedom and democracy, for not becoming a vassal of neo-imperial Russia. At the center of my personal attention, and more importantly, the attention of your civil society, is the deep understanding that, when the time comes, the first post-war elections will be the second front of Russia’s war against Ukraine. As on any battlefield, prior preparation of the necessary lines of defense is critical to ultimate success.

You should expect Russian aggression on many fronts – cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns, covert operations, and possibly false flag operations, which may include, among other things, security threats that will be plausibly denied; as well as the dirty tricks of the GRU/FSB and the allocation of funds to corruption, infiltration and subversion of your democratic processes.

The successful planning, organization and holding of the first post-war elections in Ukraine should become a key stage in establishing a renewed pluralistic democracy as an anchor of peacetime, as a cornerstone for all other reforms, as well as a prerequisite for acquiring EU membership according to the Copenhagen criteria.

You yourself know that it is worth solving a large number of questions. I will not list them during this short material. But it is clear that the unique circumstances in which the first post-war elections will be held will require the adoption of a special legislative act of an exceptional nature. To do this is the constitutional duty of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and only it, but necessarily in the process of consultations with civil society and all other relevant political players, including the Institute of the President. You have a network of world-class civil society organizations and academic experts who are fully aware of these needs, as are other relevant international players.

As part of the Jean Monnet Dialogues, which have been going on for almost a decade, I had the honor of spending many hours in confidential conversations with the leadership, as well as faction leaders of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, discussing the issues of Parliament reform and its modernization, and starting from the end of 2023, the holding of post-war elections.

If the current negotiations end in a ceasefire, I expect strong external pressure, primarily from the US, to at least hold presidential elections. The time that will remain for planning, organizing and pre-legitimizing such elections should not be a time of political and institutional paralysis and procrastination.

I admit that politicians, for obvious reasons, don’t want to appear to be focusing on politics and the upcoming election at a time when people are dying every day. But remember that thousands fought and died to preserve your freedom and democracy. And you will not honor their memory if you cannot prepare this democracy for a foreseeable and large-scale attack by Russia. What they failed to achieve on the battlefield in 11 years of war, they will try to achieve through the ballot box.

You, Ukrainians, are proud of who you are and determined to preserve your democratic freedoms. But the time has come to prepare your second front to protect the post-war electoral process from the inevitable attack and infiltration by Russia. You have defended your democracy before, so you can and should do it again. Please accept my warmest greetings and best wishes.

Glory to Ukraine!

Pat Cox

A column is a type of material that reflects exclusively the point of view of the author. It does not claim objectivity and comprehensive coverage of the topic in question. The point of view of the editors of “Economic Pravda” and “Ukrainian Pravda” may not coincide with the author’s point of view. The editors are not responsible for the reliability and interpretation of the given information and perform exclusively the role of a carrier.