Russia's economy is sliding into recession, with the most noticeable deterioration in manufacturing – intelligence

The Russian economy is plunging into recession, having exhausted its internal resources to support the economy, with the most noticeable deterioration observed in the manufacturing industry, the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reported on Friday, writes UNN.

Recessionary trends are intensifying in the Russian economy, caused by a decline in production and weakening foreign trade. According to the results of the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease in output was recorded in 70% of the main types of economic activity.

The most noticeable deterioration, as noted by intelligence, “is occurring in the manufacturing industry – a key sector of domestic production.” “Over nine months of the year, production growth was observed in only five out of 24 types of activity, while a decline was recorded in seventeen,” the report states.

Foreign economic dynamics, as reported, also show weakening. “The total volume of trade (exports plus imports) decreased by more than 3% compared to the same period in 2024. The trade surplus decreased by 11%, to 102 billion US dollars. Total goods exports for nine months decreased by 4.6%, to 303 billion dollars,” the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine said.

Against the backdrop of declining industrial activity, annual GDP growth rates in the fourth quarter of 2025 are projected to approach zero.

As the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine states, “the Russian economy is actually entering a phase of structural slowdown: growth rates remain below the level necessary to compensate for the inflationary effect.” “Stagnation in the manufacturing industry indicates that the Kremlin is gradually exhausting internal resources to support economic growth,” the report says.

Russian economy shows systemic decline – intelligence01.11.25, 12:09 • 4923 views