“Market positioning implies a meaningful probability of sub-$80K BTC to start 2026, Derive’s Forster said.”, — write: www.coindesk.com
“Skew’s sharp step lower shows traders stacking puts, especially into the December 26 expiration, where open interest has concentrated at the $84K and $80K strikes,” Nick Forster, co-founder of Derive, said in a market note.
“That positioning implies a meaningful probability of sub-$80K BTC to start 2026,” he added.
As of writing, BTC changed hands near $87,000, representing a 30% decline from the record high of over $126,000 hit on Oct. 8, according to CoinDesk data.
Forster said that the downtrend may not be over and market participants are pricing a volatile December. “I don’t believe the bottom is in. Short-dated volatility now sits above long-dated BTC volatility, signaling that the market expects outsized swings as we head into the new year,” Forster said.
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Bitcoin bulls’ hopes for rate cuts to lower bond yields and the dollar are challenged by signals from the Treasury and the FX market.
- Bitcoin bulls’ hopes for rate cuts to lower bond yields and the dollar are challenged by current market signals.
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