“
About it writes The Moscow Times.
The regulator’s updated macro foregoing refers to a significant slowdown: if in the first quarter, GDP added only 1.4% against 4.1% in the previous year, then in the second quarter the growth was 1.8%, and in the third, it will slow down to 1.6%. In the fourth quarter, growth can stop at all – the forecast is from 0 to 1%.
As a result, the average annual growth in 2025 is expected at the level of 1-2%, and in 2026 – not more than 0.5-1.5%, which, in fact, means the beginning of stagnation.
For comparison, the world economy, according to the CB, will increase almost three times faster – by 3.1% this year and 2.9% of the next year. China’s economy is even more dynamic: 4.9% and 4.8%, respectively.
Despite the record growth of GDP in 2023-2024, caused by an increase in military expenditures and government orders, the effects of war, Western sanctions, lack of labor and high interest rates are now beginning to press on the economy.
Bloomberg analysts say that in many sectors there are already signs of crisis: coal companies suffer billions of losses, oil and gas and metallurgical enterprises demonstrate the fall in profits, and autopome is massively reducing production due to low demand.
The Central Bank describes this as a decrease in the overheat of the economy and returning to the “balanced” trajectory, but experts call it an euphemism, which hides lugged and unstable growth. According to economists, the Kremlin can tolerate a period of low growth, but provided that oil prices will not fall even stronger – otherwise government revenues will be severely reduced.
Recall:
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation recorded a record increase in the shadow outflow of capital: for the 1st quarter of 2025, $ 14.7 billion of so -called “pure errors and passes” was accumulated in the balance of payments.
Since the end of last year, the annual growth of the Russian economy has fallen from about 5% to zero due to inflation, military investments and a decrease in oil prices against the background of Trump’s duties.
In the Russian Federation, the likelihood of a scenario in which the economy can slow down to the technical recession is more increasing than it is possible to curb inflation.
”, – WRITE: epravda.com.ua
About it writes The Moscow Times.
The regulator’s updated macro foregoing refers to a significant slowdown: if in the first quarter, GDP added only 1.4% against 4.1% in the previous year, then in the second quarter the growth was 1.8%, and in the third, it will slow down to 1.6%. In the fourth quarter, growth can stop at all – the forecast is from 0 to 1%.
As a result, the average annual growth in 2025 is expected at the level of 1-2%, and in 2026 – not more than 0.5-1.5%, which, in fact, means the beginning of stagnation.
For comparison, the world economy, according to the CB, will increase almost three times faster – by 3.1% this year and 2.9% of the next year. China’s economy is even more dynamic: 4.9% and 4.8%, respectively.
Despite the record growth of GDP in 2023-2024, caused by an increase in military expenditures and government orders, the effects of war, Western sanctions, lack of labor and high interest rates are now beginning to press on the economy.
Bloomberg analysts say that in many sectors there are already signs of crisis: coal companies suffer billions of losses, oil and gas and metallurgical enterprises demonstrate the fall in profits, and autopome is massively reducing production due to low demand.
The Central Bank describes this as a decrease in the overheat of the economy and returning to the “balanced” trajectory, but experts call it an euphemism, which hides lugged and unstable growth. According to economists, the Kremlin can tolerate a period of low growth, but provided that oil prices will not fall even stronger – otherwise government revenues will be severely reduced.
Recall:
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation recorded a record increase in the shadow outflow of capital: for the 1st quarter of 2025, $ 14.7 billion of so -called “pure errors and passes” was accumulated in the balance of payments.
Since the end of last year, the annual growth of the Russian economy has fallen from about 5% to zero due to inflation, military investments and a decrease in oil prices against the background of Trump’s duties.
In the Russian Federation, the likelihood of a scenario in which the economy can slow down to the technical recession is more increasing than it is possible to curb inflation.