Throughout the weekend, the McLaren drivers led by Lando Norris dominated and looked like the main favourites. However, in qualifying, Max Verstappen unexpectedly “shot” and won the pole position with a definite advantage of 0.201 seconds.
It remains an open question why McLaren lost the pace so sharply and whether this will affect the course of the race and, accordingly, the fate of the championship. About this, as well as about the main ups and downs of qualifications – in our material.
Red Bull and Verstappen’s chances
Red Bull clearly decided on the direction of the car’s settings even during training. The team chose a lower downforce level than their McLaren rivals, betting on speed on the straights. At first, this approach did not look too convincing, but in the qualification it worked completely.
Before Saturday’s races, the “bulls” did not fundamentally change the concept of the setup – they did not break what was working, but only adjusted the settings point by point. The main bet was made precisely on the night part of the qualification in the third segment in order to get the maximum advantage, especially in the third sector, which was previously problematic.
In that stretch, McLaren consistently held a lead of around three-tenths of a second on Verstappen throughout the weekend and even at the start of qualifying. However, with the onset of darkness came the pace of Red Bull in the turns of the final sector. The temperature of the track dropped, which made it possible to put more pressure on the tires without the risk of overheating. As a result, both of Verstappen’s laps in Q3 became decisive in the fight for pole.
Getty Images/Global Images Ukraine However, in the race, this approach can play against the Dutchman. Red Bull is already known to be worse with rubber than McLaren, and lower downforce traditionally results in accelerated tire wear. So Verstappen may struggle in the closing stages of each race stint.
At the same time, one should not forget about the difficulty of overtaking on modern cars, especially on the Yas-Marina track, where in recent years races have been won exclusively from the pole position. Verstappen maximized his chances of a fifth title in a row and now everything will depend on whether Norris can finish no higher than third.
Getty Images/Global Images Ukraine McLaren is insured
Verstappen was helped by McLaren himself, who in a sense took a step back. As already mentioned above, it was the “orange” that looked like the main contenders for pole and victory, but they were forced to sacrifice part of the pace.
The team feared a repeat of the Las Vegas scenario, when both cars were disqualified due to excessive wear of the bottom bar. In Abu Dhabi, such a development would be completely unacceptable, so McLaren reportedly stiffened the suspension. This made it possible to reduce the level of delphinization and, accordingly, the risk of critical wear of the bar, but at the same time it made the car too stiff. It is logical that this limited the possibilities of aggressive attack of curbs in turns.
The team used a similar approach in Brazil, but there the margin over competitors was much larger, and Red Bull then frankly failed the qualification. The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix can become a kind of illustration of how the fight could develop if Red Bull immediately found the optimal settings for Verstappen and he did not start from the pit lane in Sao Paulo.
Getty Images/Global Images Ukraine The main losses for the opponents occurred exactly on the straights, which was expected. In the third sector, full of turns, it was not possible to recover the pace. Both McLaren drivers also made minimal mistakes – without them they could only have gotten a little closer to Max, but not overtaken him.
At the same time, the rest of the rivals were far behind in pure speed, and second or even third place for Norris is already enough to win the championship.
As for Piastre, the third place in the qualification not only means a loss to his partner in the starting position, but also almost reduced his chances for the title to a minimum. It is unlikely that the team will allow them to fight in the race.
Getty Images/Global Images Ukraine Mercedes vs Ferrari
“Silver Arrows”, as after practices, look like the third force of the stage. Problems with acceleration in corners have not disappeared – Mercedes continues to lose time on them, although less than before.
Russell added a lot in the last corner, although he still lost a lot of time there. Despite this, he will start from the second row with Oscar Piastre in the McLaren. A good top speed can give him a chance to overtake the Australian in the first sectors after the start.
Antonella also had the pace, but the Italian failed to prepare the rubber properly and suffered throughout the entire lap, unable to regain his balance quickly. In a race with a high probability, he will break into the points and maybe even try to impose a fight on Leclerc for the top 5.
Getty Images/Global Images Ukraine The Ferrari leader, in his turn, maximized the result on the track, where last year he broke into the podium, starting far behind. Charles loves this circuit and is consistently fast here. The pilot himself admitted that he was surprised by the 5th position, because during the lap the cars were constantly drifting, and he even wondered whether it would be possible to complete the attempt without a mistake. However, the result fully justified itself.
It is unlikely that you will be able to climb higher than the fifth place – the main task in the race will be to restrain the pilots behind.
But Hamilton established another dubious achievement, becoming the first Ferrari pilot who did not get out of the first qualifying segment three times in a row. He will have to start only from the 16th position.
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Source: sport.ua