“He added that the Russian Federation will never agree to a cease-fire until it feels that it has to do so, but now the aggressor does not feel enough suffering.”, — write: www.unian.ua
He added that the Russian Federation will never agree to a cease-fire until it feels that it has to do so, but now the aggressor does not feel enough suffering.
Francis Fukuyama explained what will force the Russian Federation to negotiate a cessation of hostilities / screenshotLiberation of the entire territory of Ukraine within the borders of 1991 at this stage is a very difficult task. In reality, we are waiting for negotiations on a cease-fire, not on peace, according to the American professor with a world name, philosopher and researcher of politics and international relations Francis Fukuyama.“I don’t think you will have anything like the victory of 1945, when Ukraine enters Moscow and Putin commits suicide. It will not happen. Moreover, I believe that the ability of Ukraine to liberate all the territory within the borders of 1991 is a very difficult task at this stage. At the same time, it is politically impossible for any Ukrainian leader to sign such a peace agreement, which would give at least a meter of Ukrainian land. Therefore, I think that in reality we are waiting for negotiations on the terms of a ceasefire, not on peace,” he explained in an interview with “European Truth”.
According to the political scientist, this is a very difficult task. But, in his opinion, a ceasefire without Ukraine’s consent to territorial losses is possible.
“This, I believe, is exactly what we need to work on. Because, as I said, it is currently unrealistic that every meter of your territory will be liberated by military means,” Fukuyama added.
At the same time, answering the question about whether this will be a pause, after which the war will be renewed, he emphasized that this is why Ukraine’s accession to NATO is so important.
“Russia must be deterred from a new attack. After all, Ukraine will not seek to renew the war after the armistice. Russia will do that,” he explained.
At the same time, according to Fukuyama, Ukraine has powerful incentives not to return the occupied lands at any cost. Yes, a big problem is the continuation of missile attacks by the Russian Federation – and the strengthening of air defense alone will not be enough.
“This does not provide stability. And if in the future the Russians continue to launch 100 missiles there, 100 here – this will not be an effective ceasefire, right? Therefore, an agreement is needed that will lead to a real ceasefire between the parties. And after that, you have there must be a way to contain the possibility of a full-scale war. And this is where your accession to NATO or some equivalent membership – for example, a firm military guarantee – becomes very important,” he expressed his opinion.
As the journalist noted, such a ceasefire will be only temporary – but it will also mean concessions from both sides. Therefore, in order to force the Russian Federation to take such a step, “the pain that Russia and Russians feel because of this war must be increased,” the political scientist emphasized. In particular, he proposes to make the temporarily occupied Crimea unsuitable for the deployment of Russian troops.
“Also, I fully support Ukraine’s right to strike deep into Russia. The Russian civilian population has not really experienced war yet. So you have to make them understand what war is. This is very important,” says Fukuyama.
He added that the Russian Federation will never agree to a ceasefire until it feels that it has to do so. Now, neither Russia nor the Russians feel enough suffering for this to happen.
And if this pain is strong enough, the Russian Federation will have to make concessions, even if the dictator Putin remains in power.
“Even now, the Russian army has a serious shortage of personnel. This is one of the reasons why Russia could not really respond to your invasion of Kurshchyna,” summarized Francis Fukuyama.
How the war in Ukraine can end: other opinionsThe President of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, said that Ukrainians and supporters of Ukraine will have to come to terms with the fact that Russia will retain control over the occupied territories at the end of the war – at least for a while.
Such a position outraged the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. They stated that the withdrawal of the Russian occupying forces from the sovereign territory of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders is one of the mandatory points of the peace formula of the President of Ukraine.
Later, Pavel explained his words. He emphasized that this is not the first time he has voiced such an opinion.
“I have never doubted that we should support Ukraine in restoring its territorial integrity, that this is the ultimate goal. We just have to be realistic about the time horizon and the price of achieving this goal. Victory over Russia in Ukraine at the cost of destroying half of the Ukrainian population, probably , is not a victory,” he said.
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