“The unpredictable US president has shown himself to be capable of achieving foreign policy.”, — write: www.unian.ua
The unpredictable US president has shown himself to be capable of achieving foreign policy.
Trump’s policy makes several things clear / UNIAN collage, photo president.gov.ua, screenshotA year ago, Donald Trump, who had not yet become the president of the United States for the second time, promised an enthusiastic crowd that his convincing victory in the elections would mark the beginning of a new “golden era” for America. But while he was basking in his resounding victory, a “chorus of somber voices” announced that the rest of the world was entering a nightmarish dark age, particularly dangerous for America’s allies in Europe, writes The Telegraph.
For months, Trump’s campaign rhetoric has painted an icy picture of exactly what he intends to do to countries that have been friends of the United States for generations. If other NATO allies do not start spending more on their own armed forces, then Trump will not only refuse to fulfill the contractual obligations of the United States regarding their protection, but will also “encourage” the Russians “to do whatever they want”, writes the media.
He promised to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours, prompting speculation that America could team up with Kremlin dictator Putin to force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi to accept Russia’s terms and choose surrender as the quickest way to bring peace, while also giving Israel full leeway to wage war in Gaza.
And by imposing punitive tariffs, Trump would inflame America’s rivalry with China, risking an uncontrolled escalation between the two Pacific nations. However, after a year of hype and fury, the truth is that none of these Trumpist nightmare scenarios have come to pass, the report said. Trump has demonstrated the ability to achieve real success in foreign policy.
Strategy of uncertainty regarding Ukraine and RussiaUncertainty can work both ways. By keeping everyone permanently off balance, Trump can also convince the aggressor that the consequences of checking America are too unpredictable to risk.
And if there is a guiding method of Trump’s foreign policy, it is the method of radical uncertainty. By forcing both friends and adversaries to play the eternal guessing game of whether this is mere rhetoric or reality, Trump seeks to bend them to his will.
No one felt this more than Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who faced Trump’s wrath in the Oval Office in February. America temporarily stopped sharing intelligence and supplying weapons, with the apparent goal of breaking Zelensky and forcing him to capitulate to Putin.
However, by September, Trump made a complete U-turn and declared that Ukraine can not only defeat the Russian invasion, but also return every centimeter of the occupied territories and “reconquer all of Ukraine in its original form.”
If Putin believed that he was somehow not subject to the rule of radical uncertainty or was endowed with a privileged understanding of Trump’s decision-making, then the latest events became a rude shock for him, the media writes. On October 22, Trump abruptly canceled a summit with Putin and moved to strangle Russia’s oil revenues by imposing sanctions that have crippled Rosneft and Lukoil.
Amidst all the zigzags, Trump’s Ukraine policy seems to have a few consistent threads: America won’t just let Russia win, but neither will Congress ask to approve new multibillion-dollar aid packages. Trump will expect Europe to shoulder the lion’s share of the costs of supporting Ukraine; any American weapons will not be donated, but will be sold to Kyiv on commercial terms.
At the same time, the latest sanctions show that Trump is ready to put more economic pressure on Russia than Biden ever did.
“Trump has realized that he cannot allow Ukraine to lose, especially if the responsibility is placed on him. He is doing everything to put maximum pressure on the Europeans to close financial holes,” noted former British Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt, who dealt with Trump in his first term.
Given that Ukraine is Europe’s largest country after Russia, it is not unreasonable to expect European governments to foot most of the bill for supporting Zelenskyi. And that’s why Trump is unlikely to run away from Ukraine or any other international crisis for now.
What about Europe itself?In the past 12 months, Trump has reportedly even strengthened NATO, intimidating European allies and forcing them to spend more on their own defense. And he hit the “carotid artery” of Putin’s income in a way that President Biden never did, introducing American sanctions against the two largest Russian oil companies – Rosneft and Lukoil.
To understand the scale of NATO’s transformation, the journalists suggest recalling that when Putin first invaded Ukraine in 2014, only two European allies – Great Britain and Greece – spent more than 2% of GDP on defense. Even when Putin launched a full-scale offensive eight years later, in 2022, only six European states met the 2% target.
This year, on the contrary, all 32 NATO members will reach this level, and five European countries – Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Norway – will go further and spend more on defense (as a share of GDP) than the USA.
“The sobering truth is that even Putin’s aggression alone would not be enough to divert the “supertanker” of European defense spending – for this, Trump’s threats to leave the alliance were also needed,” the article reads.
At the NATO summit in The Hague in June, Trump managed to convince allies to raise their defense spending well above 2% to 3.5% of GDP, plus another 1.5% on top of that for national security infrastructure. In exchange for this commitment, Trump agreed to reaffirm “the unwavering commitment to collective defense enshrined in Article 5 of the treaty – that an attack on one is an attack on all.”
That is why Putin today faces a Europe that is rearming faster than anyone could have imagined just three years ago, while Trump has publicly reaffirmed America’s willingness to defend its allies. At least on paper, such an achievement should make Europe safer.
Other interesting news about Trump’s politicsEarlier, UNIAN reported that the American president recently answered whether he would allow Orban to continue receiving Russian oil under sanctions. He confirmed that the Prime Minister of Hungary had indeed approached him about this issue, but was refused.
In addition, we also reported that Trump’s claims to Greenland had yielded results. Denmark began working to really protect the island.
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