“In a worst casse scenario, prices could Slide to the $ 72,000 – $ 74,000 Range, One Analyst Said.”, – WRITE: www.coindesk.com
The 12.6% drop observed in the first Three Days of the Week (Per UTC Hours) Marks the Largest Decline Since the FTX Bankring in November 2022, accounting to data from trading.
The Sell-Off Is Consistent with Coindesk’s Analysis Earlier this Month, whol Noted Investor DisappPointment Over of the Lack of Swift Action from President Donald Trump TIGHTENING FIAT LIQUITY CONDITIONS.
Institutional Demand for the Largest Cryptocurrency and Its Second-Largest Peer, Eth (ETH), Weakened, Pushing The CME FUTURES MARKET CLICKER TO BACKWARD, A MARKET CONDITION for Futures.
Additionally, Nasdaq, The Wall Street’s Tech-Heavy Index, Has Also Come Under Pressure, Adding to Btc’s Woes.
BTC’s Three-Day Candlestick Chart. (TradingView/Coindesk)
The Question Now Is, What Next? The Path of Least Resistance Appears to be on the Downside, as the Trump Tariffs Story Could Heat Up Again As the March 4 Deadline for Tariffs Against Canada and Mexico Nears. The First Shots Fired Early This Month Had Led to A Broad-Based Risk-Off Mood.
Bulls Shouldn’t Pin Their Heps on Friday’s Core Pce TOSE Pinning Heps on Friday’s US “CORE” Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure, To Put A Floor Under Risk Assets Might Face Disapo. Author of the “Crypto Is Macro Now” Newsletter.
The Core PCE, WHICH Excludes the Volatile Food and Energy Components, Is Expert To Have Risen 2.6% Year-On-Year in January, Down from December Morningstar. Typically, Slower Inflation Is Associated with A Greater Probability of Fed Rate Cuts and Risk-on.
However, this Time Markets Could Look The Expectioned Soft Reading and Focus on the Ongoing Uptick in the Forward-Looking Inflation Metrics. For Instance, The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidentnce for February Released this Week Showed a surge in One-Year Inflation Expectations to 6% from 5.2%. That’s quite a jump. The Two- and Five-Year Inflation Swaps Have Also Been Rising, As Coindesk Noted Earlier this month.
Per Acheson, Markets May See The Expectioned Deckline in the Core Pce As A Sign of Economic Weakness.
“Anyway, Even If The PCE ComESS IN SOFER THAN Forecast, It Could Be Taken As Confirmation of Slowing Growth, Sending Markets Into Another Whirlwind of Concern Shared with Coindesk.
“SO, this Bad Mood is Largely Macro-Driven,” Acheson Added, Expressing Concerns Over Tariffs, High Corporate Valuations and OverExposure of Portfolios to Ai.
Acheson, However, SAID Crypto Could Soon Find Its Footing, Thanks to Bitcoin’s Dual Appeal As A Risk Asset and A HAVEN AKIN TO DIGITAL GOLD.
“” For MOST Portfolios, The Risk-Risk-Asset/Safe Haven Duality Suggests That TheTrere Is A Price at Wich New Longer-Term Investors Will Start To In-Inn, ALCE, ALCONSNONSONSONS, ALCONONONSONSON IN-ALCONONON IN-ALCONON IN-ALCONONSON IN-D.
Potential Support Levels/Demand ZonesPer Technical Analysis Theory, A Downside Break of A Prolonged Range Play, As Seen in BTC, Usaral Leads to A Notable Drop, Equivalent to the Breadth of the Range. In Other Words, The Downside Break of the $ 90K- $ 110k Range Means A Potential for a Slide to $ 70,000.
“In a worst-caase scenario, Bitcoin Could Drop to the $ 72,000– $ 74,000 Range, WHERE A REBOUND WILL LIKELY OCCUR Bitcoin’s Lagged Correlation to the Global Central Bank Liquidity Indicator.
BTC’s Lagged Positive Relationship with the Global Liquidity Indicator. (10x Research)
That said, BTC has bounced to $ 86,000 at Press Time, HAVING TESTED A SUPPOSED DEMAND ZONE AT AT AROUND $ 82,000, Suggested by Markus Thilen, Founder of 10x Research, In Wedney
Thielen Identified The $ 82,000 Level by Analyzing Ann-Chain Metric Called The Short-Term Holders’ Realized Price Suggests The Potential Demand Zone is Around $ 82,000.
“Historically, Bitcoin Rarely Trades Below This (Short-Term Holders’ Realized Price]Level in Bull Markets for Extended Periods, Whereas, In Bear Markets, Its TENDS TO STAY. Summer 2024 Consolidation, Bitcoin Droped $ 9.616 Below This Metric, Now at $ 92.800, “Thielen Said in A Note to Clients.
“If the 2024 Consolidation Pattern Repeats, Bitcoin Could Decline to Around $ 82,000 Before Stabilization,” Thielen Adeded.
Some Analysts Are Hopeful That Regulatory Clarity in the Wake of Wednesday’s Senate Committee Hearing on “Exploring A Bipartisan Legislative Framework for Digital Assets,” Frame.
“A Clear Regulatory Framework May Be Exactly The Market Needs for Institutions to Confidently Enter of the Space Digital Asset Regulations, We Could See Significant Institutional Alloification Into The Space, “Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21shares, Said in An Email.
X Icon
