“Rising bitcoin supply in loss, weakening spot demand and cautious derivatives positioning were among the issues raised by the data provider in its weekly newsletter.”, — write: www.coindesk.com
The first metric that suggests stress is the elevated risk of top buyer capitulation. Glassnode’s supply quantiles cost basis, which tracks the cost basis of supply held by top buyers, shows that since mid-November the spot price has fallen below the 0.75 quantile and is trading near $96,100. This places more than 25% of BTC supply underwater. A similar breakdown below the 0.75 quantile marked the start of the 2022 bear market.
Risk Indicator Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model (Glassnode)
At the same time, total supply in loss on a 7-day simple moving average has now reached 7.1 million bitcoins, the top end of the 5 million to 7 million range seen in early 2022.
Despite these pressures, capital continues to flow into bitcoin on a realized cap net change basis, which stands near $8.69 billion per month. This, though, remains far below the summer peak of $64.3 billion per month, according to Glassnode.
Realized Cap Net Position Change (Glassnode)
Off chain trends show additional softening from investors. ETF demand continues to weaken, with IBIT registering a sixth consecutive week of outflows, its longest negative streak since launching in January 2024. The outflows now total more than $2.7 billion in redemptions over the last five weeks.
Spot market activity is also deteriorating. Cumulative volume delta (CVD) has rolled over, with Binance CVD trending persistently negative, Glassnode observes. The Coinbase premium, meanwhile, looks like it will be rolling over again, after recently flipping positive following a long period in the red.
Derivatives data reinforces the decline in risk appetite. Open interest has fallen throughout November into December, suggesting reduced willingness to take on risk, particularly after the Oct. 10 liquidation flash crash events. Perpetual funding rates are mostly neutral with brief periods of negative prints, and the funding premium has cooled significantly, which points to a more balanced and less speculative environment.
Glassnode also notes that traders are not positioning for a strong breakout ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. The firm sees a cautious stance in the options market where upside is being sold rather than chased. Earlier in the week, put buying dominated as bitcoin approached $80,000. As prices later stabilized, flows shifted toward call activity as investor fears calmed.
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence’s Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025, with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch, the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B, while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
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K33 Research says market fear is outweighing fundamentals as bitcoin nears key levels. December could offer an entry point for bold investors.
- K33 Research says bitcoin’s steep correction shows signs of bottoming, with December potentially marking a turning point.
- The firm has argued that the market is overreacting to long-term risks while ignoring near-term signals of strength, like low leverage and solid support levels.
- With likely policy shifts ahead and cautious positioning in futures, K33 sees more upside potential than risk of another major collapse.
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