Military supplies to Ukraine for 2025 are at risk – Bloomberg

The delivery of military aid to Ukraine next year is at risk due to a lack of funding from allies. Ukraine is trying to convince its Western allies to fulfill their financial obligations. Moscow’s military machine, on the contrary, is ahead of Kyiv in its ability to purchase the much-needed ammunition, missiles and other equipment to repel attacks. This is reported by Bloomberg UNN.

Much of Ukraine’s military support in 2025 is tied to the Group of Seven’s $50 billion loan deal with profits from frozen Russian assets.

The allies are still haggling over the final details of the deal, and the US wants assurances that Hungary will not block EU measures. The final amount may be lower if an agreement is not reached, Bloomberg notes.

But even if a deal is reached, $50 billion still won’t be enough to cover Ukraine’s needs for another year of war — and allies will have to look beyond that funding, the people said.

According to forecasts of the Ukrainian government, the budget deficit will amount to 19% of the gross domestic product in 2025, and about 35 billion dollars will be needed to replenish it, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said last month.

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More than half of that amount will come from the International Monetary Fund and the EU, and about $15 billion is needed to make up the balance — officials say it may require some G7 loans.

In addition, it is about military financing. The $50 billion the G7 will provide will be roughly equivalent to the military aid the US and key European allies provided between January 2023 and June this year.

According to data compiled by the Kiel Institute, the US provided about 31.5 billion euros during this period, while Germany, Great Britain, France and Italy contributed about 15.7 billion euros.

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These figures may not include all military support provided to Ukraine, as some countries do not disclose all aid provided. In other cases, the promises have not yet been fulfilled. Among other things, the Ukrainian military is counting on the help of allies in the purchase of artillery ammunition, missiles and air defense equipment.

The looming currency crisis among the allies comes at a dangerous time for Ukraine and could force Kyiv to negotiate from a position of weakness, the people said.

Next year will be particularly important because in 2026 the Russian economy may begin to feel increasing pressure, a dynamic that one European government says could undermine Putin’s belief that time is on his side.

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Moscow, whose production is supported by supplies from Iran and North Korea, continues to direct budget funding to the war effort. In 2025, the USSR plans to spend 13.2 trillion rubles ($142 billion) on defense, i.e. 6.2% of the gross domestic product. It is expected that in 2025 defense and security spending will make up about 40% of Russia’s total budget.

Ukraine’s European allies are facing their own financial difficulties. The German government is constrained by constitutional debt limits and has cut direct funding to Kyiv. France has a new government after a tumultuous election season and is under pressure from the EU to cut the deficit. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Maloney’s coalition may be bound by spending commitments.

Negotiations on a new EU budget, as well as possible measures to increase defense spending by hundreds of billions of euros, are likely to be delayed until the German elections.

Aid from Britain, a staunch ally that has often been the first to provide modern weaponry, also appears to have stalled recently, according to an official familiar with the matter. Prime Minister Keir Starmer told his constituents that tough times lie ahead as he tries to rein in spending, although he also told the UN on Wednesday that Britain’s support for Ukraine was “ironclad”.

Of course, the promises of NATO allies continue to arrive, the publication notes. On Thursday, Biden announced nearly $8 billion in new military aid to Ukraine and plans to convene a meeting of leaders of key allies to coordinate additional support during his visit to Germany next month.

In a statement that coincided with Zelenskyi’s visit to the White House, it is said that Biden instructs the Pentagon to allocate all remaining aid to Ukraine by the end of his presidential term. The Defense Department is also unveiling an initial aid package that includes additional air defense systems, drones and munitions.

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